Drugmakers who earn the bulk of their revenues by selling copycat drugs in developed markets may see exports fall by 10-12% in the next five years as fewer drugs go off-patent in these markets, CRISIL Research said.
The projected decline is in contrast to compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% seen in the last decade. India exported drugs worth $11.6 billion in 2014-15. Of this, exports to US alone was $3.8 billion, or a third of total exports. Between 2011 and 2015, Indian companies accounted for an average of 37% of all abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) approvals—which enable a company to sell generic versions of innovator molecules —in the US market. This was just short of the 40% share held by US companies, but way ahead of the next competing countries—Israel and Germany—which had 5% each. Large drug makers exporting to US are squeezed by more rivals filing ANDAs, and consolidation of distribution channels which has squeezed pricing power.